Exostats : Statistics and Pleine Lune Mars

ABOUT

The discovery and characterization of exoplanets requires both superbly accurate instrumentation and sophisticated statistical methods, to extract weak planetary signals from dominant starlight, very large samples and noisy datasets. This meeting will bring together exoplanet and computational statistics experts to discuss and address key challenges, including:

To build on what we hope will be a productive exchange of ideas between the two communities, we will also organise a day of tutorials and hands-on experimentation with algorithms and software packages, outside the official IAU GA program, on Thursday 6th of August. See Hack Day.

The focus meeting will be sponsored by the International Statistical Institute, International Astrostatistics Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics and the International Astronomical Union.

ORGANISERS

Scientific Organizing Committee

Suzanne Aigrain (U. Oxford, UK) – chair
Andrew Collier-Cameron (U. St Andrews, UK)
Laurent Eyer (Observatoire de Geneve, CH)
Eric Feigelson (Penn State, US) – co-chair
Philip Gregory (U. British Columbia, CA)
Chris Koen (U. Western Cape, SA)
Michael Liu (U. Hawaii, US)
Oleg Malkov (Russian Academy of Science, RU)
Claire Moutou (U. Marseille-Provence / CFHT, FR)
Sascha Quanz (ETH Zurich)
James Berger (Duke U., US)

Local Organizing Committee

Michael Liu – chair (U. Hawaii)
Andrew Howard (U. Hawaii)
Janis Hagelberg (U. Hawaii)
Benjamin J Fulton (U. Hawaii)
Claire Moutou (CFHT)

TALKS

MONDAY, AUGUST 03

FM8.1: Statistics for Exoplanetary Research
10:00 AM – 10:30 AM Introduction: Suzanne Aigrain, Eric Feigelson, Joseph Hilbe
10:30 AM – 11:15 AM Transit Timing Variations … , Eric B. Ford et al.
11:15 AM – 12:00 PM Overview of modern Bayesian … methods, James Berger

FM8.2: Planet Occurrence Rates and eta-Earth
2:00 PM – 2:30 PM Planet Demographics from Transits, Andrew Howard
2:30 PM – 2:45 PM Kepler Reliability [and] Occurrence Rate Steve Bryson et al.
2:45 PM – 3:00 PM The Occurrence of Earth-Like Planets … Will M. Farr et al.
3:00 PM – 3:30 PM Hierarchical inference for exoplanet… Daniel Foreman-Mackey

TUESDAY, AUGUST 04

FM8.3: Planet Detection with Various Techniques
10:30 AM – 11:00 AM Bayesian planet searches in radial velocity data, Phil Gregory
11:00 AM – 11:30 AM Wide Giant Planets are Rare: … Direct Imaging, Beth Biller
11:30 AM – 12:00 PM … Speckles … in High Contrast Imaging, Christian Marois
12:00 PM – 12:15 PM Planet Frequency … from MOA-II … , Daisuke Suzuki et al.
12:15 PM – 12:30 PM Astrometric exoplanet surveys … Johannes Sahlmann

FM8.4: Planet Detection with Various Techniques II, Room 312, Hawaii Convention Center
2:00 PM – 2:30 PM Dealing with activity in RV planet searchers, Isabelle Boisse
2:30 PM – 2:45 PM Estimations of uncertainties of frequencies, Laurent Eyer et al.
2:45 PM – 3:00 PM Significance of noisy signals in periodograms, Maria Süvege
3:00 PM – 3:15 PM Measuring the detection efficiency of the Kepler pipeline, Jessie Christiansen
3:15 PM – 3:30 PM Applying Gaussian processes to Spitzer/IRAC …, Thomas Evans

WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 05

FM8.5: NASA’s Kepler Transit Mission
10:30 AM – 11:00 AM Advances in the Kepler Transit Search Engine …, Jon M. Jenkins
11:00 AM – 11:30 AM Combining transit and radial velocity data …, Leslie A. Rogers
11:30 AM – 11:45 AM BART: A probabilistic and automated tool … Olivier Demangeon et al.
11:45 AM – 12:00 PM Validation of transiting planet candidates… Rodrigo F. Díaz et al.
12:00 PM – 12:15 PM Probabilistic mass-radius relationship… Angie Wolfgang et al.
12:15 PM – 12:30 PM Probabilistic stellar rotation periods … Ruth Angus et al.

FM8.6: Characterizing Exoplanetary Atmospheres
2:00 PM – 2:15 PM A population-based Habitable Zone perspective Andras Zsom
2:15 PM – 2:45 PM Reliable extraction of spectra … Neale Gibson
2:45 PM – 3:15 PM Overcoming degeneracies in exoplanet spectra Björn Benneke
3:15 PM – 3:30 PM Measuring transmission spectra from the ground Andres Jordan et al.

FM8.7: Approximate Bayes and Concluding Remarks
4:00 PM – 4:30 PM Approximate Bayesian Computation Jessi Cisewski
4:30 PM – 4:45 PM Analyzing … via unsupervised learning techniques Kai L. Polsterer et al

HACKDAY TALKS

PyTransit & LDTk: fast & easy transit modelling and limb darkening profiles in Python – Hannu Parviainen
MACULA: Fast Modeling of Rotational Modulations of Spotty Stars – David Kipping
Simple ABC: A Python Package for Approximate Bayesian Computation – Robert C. Morehead
Stellar Property Modelling and Transit False Positive Analysis: ‘isochrones’ and ‘vespa’ – Timothy Morton

POSTERS

Poster no. Abstract no. Presenter Poster Title
1 2255539 Alves On metallicity distribution for planet-hosting stars
2 2250123 Angerhausen The First Exoplanet Transit Observations with SOFIA
3 2243577 Artigau Planets on ultra-wide orbits
4 2257888 Baker Preparing for Bayesian analysis of WFIRST microlensing capability.
5 2249592 Baluev PlanetPack3: a software tool for exoplanets characterization from radial velocity and transit data
6 2249613 Baluev Modelling nonstationary Doppler noise in exoplanetary radial velocity data
7 2249624 Baluev How amateur observations can be used in the exoplanetary science?
8 2256208 Barclay The Five Planets in the Kepler-296 Binary System All Orbit the Primary: An Application of Importance Sampling
9 2257303 Barros First K2 mutiplanatary system showing TTVs
10 2242125 Beatty Preliminary Hot Jupiter Statisitcs From the KELT-North Transit Survey
11 2242523 Bennett The Use of Lens Mass and Distance Measurements in the Statistical Analysis of Microlensing Exoplanet Data
12 2257887 Berta-Thompson Preparing for TESS: What to Expect
13 2251679 Bott New Measurements of Polarised Light from Exoplanets
14 2254789 Bovaird An artificial Kepler dichotomy? Implications for the coplanarity of planetary systems
15 2257643 Brogi Exoplanet Atmospheres at High Spectral Resolution
16 2258195 Bryden Tracing Planet Orbits with WFIRST
17 2256961 Buchhave Precisely measuring the density of small transiting exoplanets with particular emphasis on longer period planet using the HARPS-N spectrograph
18 2254945 Caceres Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search: Motivation & Methodology
19 2257423 Caceres Kepler AutoRegressive Planet Search: Initial Results
20 2255463 Catanzarite Inferring Planet Occurrence Rates With a Q1-Q17 Kepler Planet Candidate Catalog Produced by a Machine Learning Classifier
21 2258421 Christiansen Measuring the Detection Efficiency of the Kepler Pipeline: The First Results from a Simulated Transit Experiment Spanning the Full Observation Baseline
22 2258444 Clarke Image Artifact Flagging in the Kepler Pipeline
23 2257510 Coughlin The First Uniform Kepler Q1 - Q17 Planet Candidate Catalog
24 2251686 Davie The spectral library of the AAPS
25 2258506 Desert Comparative Exoplanetology From Atmospheric Surveys
26 2255996 Dou The Direct Imaging Search of Exoplanets from Ground and Space
27 2258113 Emilio Presenting new exoplanet candidates for the CoRoT chromatic light curves
28 2256647 Evans Applying Gaussian processes to Spitzer/IRAC transit lightcurves
29 2258352 Foreman-Mackey The search for single exoplanet transits in the Kepler light curves
30 2253010 Fors Evrystats for Evryplanets: planets from the first all-sky gigapixel scale telescope
31 2255500 Goel Statistics and Machine Learning based Outlier Detection Techniques for Exoplanets
32 2256141 Grunblatt Measuring the Mass of Kepler-78b Using a Gaussian Process Model
33 2257056 Hartman Analyzing Exoplanet Time-Series Data with the VARTOOLS program
34 2257179 Hartman The Challenge of Exoplanet Population Statistics From Ground-Based Transit Surveys
35 2257971 Hoffman A Transit Inversion Search of the Kepler Field
36 2248703 Hu Colors of Alien Worlds from Direct Imaging Exoplanet Missions
37 2248719 Hu Characterizing Exoplanet Atmospheres with Visible-Wavelength Phase Curves
38 2159630 Huang HAT-P-56b: A bright highly inflated massive Hot Jupiter around An F star in K2.0 field
39 2258258 Huitson First Results from a Gemini/GMOS Transiting Exoplanet Atmosphere Survey
40 2257999 Ingalls Kernel Regression Techniques for Enhancing Spitzer Photometric Precision
41 2220227 Jiang Tracking the Planet-Planet Interactions by Statistics: The Period-Ratio and Mass-Ratio Correlation
42 2258530 Jones Occurrence rate of low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs
43 2255364 Khalafinejad Searching for exo-planetary atmospheric sodium around the active star, HD189733 with UVES
44 2235864 Kipping MACULA: Fast Modeling of Rotational Modulations of Spotty Stars
45 2252303 Korhonen Activity induced detection limits for Earth-sized planets from radial velocity studies
46 2258223 Krick Spitzer IRAC Sparsely Sampled Phase Curve of WASP-14b
47 2258271 Law LGS-AO Imaging of Every Kepler Planet Candidate: the Robo-AO KOI Survey
48 2228628 Lee The Pulsating sdB+M Eclipsing System NY Virginis and its Circumbinary Planets
49 2248472 Li Transit Model Fitting in Processing Four Years of Kepler Science Data: New Features and Performance
50 2258465 Lineweaver Using a generalized version of the Titius-Bode relation to extrapolate the patterns seen in Kepler multi-exoplanet systems, and estimate the average number of planets in circumstellar habitable zones
51 2252234 Liu Detecting Habitable Planets via Astrometry in Current Planetary Systems
52 2254053 Marois TLOCI: A Fully Loaded Speckle Killing Machine
53 2242117 Martinez Gomez Detecting Associations Between The Exoplanets and Their Host Stars Through the Distance Correlation Measure
54 2243387 Martioli A statistical study of quantities that affect the precision of near infrared photometry for the detection of secondary eclipses
55 2255909 Millholland An analysis of the massless planet approximation in transit light curve models
56 2258010 Montet The View from 20 AU: The Occurrence Rate of Giant Planets around M Dwarfs
57 2248369 Montgomery Architectures of Planetary System - Snapshots in Time
58 2257552 Morcos Third Bodies of Multiple Systems as an Exoplanet (A Quantization Method)
59 2257552 Morehead Using Approximate Bayesian Computation to Probe Multiple Transiting Planet Systems
60 2254042 Morello A new data analysis technique for Spitzer transit observations
61 2253586 Morton Automated Astrophysical False Positive Analysis of Transiting Planet Signals
62 2256025 Mulders Small, Numerous and Close-in: The Population of Planets around Low-mass Stars.
63 2254039 Mullally A New Metric to Decide if a Photometric Signal is Transit-Shaped
64 2254039 Mullally A New Metric to Decide if a Photometric Signal is Transit-Shaped
65 2258428 Mullaly Automated Centroid-based False Positive Detection of Kepler Planet Candidates
66 2255590 Nelson Frequentist and Bayesian Orbital Parameter Estimaton from Radial Velocity Data Using RVLIN, BOOTTRAN, and RUN DMC
67 2258240 Nelson Model comparison using Bayes factors computed from MCMC samples: evidence for four planets orbiting GJ 876
68 2253202 Ngo Friends of Hot Jupiters: Trends in directly imaged companion fraction
69 2257364 Nishikawa Contrast enhancement with pre-coronagraph and dark-hole
70 2257814 Ofir Searching for circumbinary planets with CB-BLS
71 2257842 Ofir Optimal BLS: Optimizing transit-signal detection for Keplerian dynamics
72 2241608 Opitz Searching for Binary Y dwarfs with the Gemini Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics System (GeMS)
73 2257512 Pinfield Sifting planetary mass objects at the limits of the WISE survey
74 2243478 Placek The Detection and Characterization of Exoplanets With EXONEST
75 2226991 Plavchan Project NIRRVS: Precise Near-Infrared Radial Velocity Surveys
76 2235132 Rameau Planets in MYND: a direct imaging survey to probe the occurence of giant planets on wide-orbits around massive, young, nearby and dusty stars
77 2252365 Rocchetto A statistical look at the retrieval of exoplanetary atmospheres of super Earths and giant planets
78 2257697 Rogers Compositional Constraints on the Best Characterized Rocky Exoplanet, Kepler-36 b
79 2257919 Rowe Understanding Kepler’s Objects of Interest.
80 2258500 Saar The Radial Velocity Signature and Line Diagnostics Arising from Realistic, Rotating Stellar Plage Models
81 2235233 Sarkis Revising the Transit Depth-Metallicity Correlation of Kepler’s Giant Candidates
82 2255166 Schlaufman How Bayes’ Theorem and Machine Learning Reveal the Origin of Hot Jupiter
83 2250007 Seader A Computationally Efficient Statistical Bootstrap Test for Transiting Planets
84 2256882 Shan M-dwarf Multiplicity Statistics from Kepler — A Surprising Bountifulness of Sub-Year Low-Mass Binaries?
85 2253503 Sheets Statistical Eclipses of Kepler Long Cadence Sub-Saturn Planet Candidates
86 2253424 Shporer Visible-light orbital phase curves: Not so simple!
87 2255775 Smith K2 Mission Light Curves
88 2255213 Sumi MOA-2013-BLG-605Lb: The Neptune analog
89 2247922 Tamura Subaru Direct Imaging Survey of Wide-Orbit Exoplanets and Solar-System-Scale Disks
90 2257848 Tessenyi Planetary populations with ARIEL: an ESA-M4 candidate mission for exoplanet atmosphere spectroscopy
91 2248122 Todorov Retrieving the Compositions of Directly Imaged Substellar Companions: κ And b and HD 106906 b
92 2232337 Traub Exoplanet Population Distribution from Kepler Data
93 2257582 Tsiaras The spectrum of the hot Jupiter XO-1b: an emblematic case to test HST/WFC3 spatial scanning
94 2257235 Tusnski Search for Exomoons and Rings with Kepler and CoRoT
95 2252899 Twicken Characterization and Validation of Transiting Planets in the Kepler and TESS Pipelines
96 2253590 Valizadegan Towards Automatic Classification of Exoplanet-Transit-Like Signals: A Case Study on Kepler Mission Data
97 2256802 Varley Recovering the Signal: Comparison of data analysis methods used for exoplanet transit and eclipse spectra with HST WFC3
98 2256992 Waldmann Towards an integrated statistical approach to explanetary spectroscopy
99 2226536 Wang Stellar Multiplicity Rate of Planet Host Stars
100 2254914 Wilson Characterising the atmospheres of transiting exoplanets using narrowband spectrophotometry
101 2252119 Zakharov Simulations of future polarization observations for exoplanet searches with gravitational microlensing
102 2247705 Zakhozhay The new approach to identify a planet embedded in a disk
103 2257254 Zhou Micro-pixel Displacement Estimation for the Heterogeneous and Asymmetric PSFs of STEP
104 2253923 Zucker New Non-Parametric Approaches for Periodicity Detection in Sparse Data
105 2253966 Zucker The GATE Initiative (GAia Transiting Exoplanets): The Way to fully Exploit Gaia’s Potential to Detect Transiting Exoplanets

HACK DAY

As a complement to the official program of the focus meeting, we are organising a “Software / hack day” splinter session on August 6th. This session is to enable authors of software packages that are useful for the analysis of exoplanet datasets to present them, and participants to try them out with the authors on hand to help and advise them. The format will consist of short talks in the morning, and a free-form, hands on session in the afternoon.

The program of the morning session is given below, including download links to the software packages for those who want to come ready to test things out. All the authors will be on hand to talk to participants during the afternoon.

The splinter session will take place in room 324 at the Convention Center, from 9 am to 4:30 pm.

EXOSTATS VIDEO

The Exostats focus session was streamed live using Google Hangouts. Due to an initially poor interent connection the first few videos are of low quality. The remaining videos are of much better quality. All the videos are posted below. Alternatively they are also available on YouTube.

PLANET OCCURRENCE RATES AND ETA-EARTH

Includes:

Planet Demographics from Transits, Andrew Howard
Kepler Reliability [and] Occurrence Rate, Steve Bryson et al.
The Occurrence of Earth-Like Planets … Will M. Farr et al.
Hierarchical inference for exoplanet… Daniel Foreman-Mackey

PLANET DETECTION WITH VARIOUS TECHNIQUES

Includes:

Wide Giant Planets are Rare: … Direct Imaging, Beth Biller
Speckles … in High Contrast Imaging, Christian Marois
Planet Frequency … from MOA-II …, Daisuke Suzuki et al.
Astrometric exoplanet surveys …, Johannes Sahlmann

PLANET DETECTION WITH VARIOUS TECHNIQUES II

Includes:

Dealing with activity in RV planet searchers, Isabelle Boisse
Estimations of uncertainties of frequencies, Laurent Eyer et al.
Significance of noisy signals in periodograms, Maria Süvege
Measuring the detection efficiency of the Kepler pipeline, Jessie Christiansen
Applying Gaussian processes to Spitzer/IRAC …, Thomas Evans

NASA’S KEPLER TRANSIT MISSION

Includes:

Advances in the Kepler Transit Search Engine …, Jon M. Jenkins
Combining transit and radial velocity data …, Leslie A. Rogers
BART: A probabilistic and automated tool …, Olivier Demangeon et al.
Validation of transiting planet candidates…, Rodrigo F. Díaz et al.
Probabilistic mass-radius relationship…, Angie Wolfgang et al.
Probabilistic stellar rotation periods …, Ruth Angus et al.

CHARACTERIZING EXOPLANETARY ATMOSPHERES

Includes:

A population-based Habitable Zone perspective, Andras Zsom
Overcoming degeneracies in exoplanet spectra, Björn Benneke
Measuring transmission spectra from the ground, Andres Jordan et al.

APPROXIMATE BAYES AND CONCLUDING REMARKS

Includes:

Approximate Bayesian Computation, Jessi Cisewski
Analyzing … via unsupervised learning techniques, Kai L. Polsterer et al

PROCEEDINGS

The Focus Meeting proceedings will be published, along with the other FMs at the Honolulu General Assembly, in volumes entitles “Astronomy in Focus” by Cambridge University Press. As this format will not permit extended papers, we will also arrange for the deposition of additional material on a permanent online archive with links to the Astrophysics Data System. Details will be forthcoming.

CONTACT US
If you have any questions please contact the organizers at: contact(at)exostats(dot)org. When tweeting about the meeting, please use the hashtag #ExoStats15